MODULE 4: Climate Justice (2)

AGENDA

1. Peter Singer recap
2. Climate Tracker assessment of NDCs under Paris Agreement
3. Preview: Bjorn Lomborg 

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Peter Singer recap

What should different nations do to prevent further climate change? What is each nation's "fair share" of the effort needed to keep temperature rise below 1.5 or 2 deg C?

(1) Historical principle: present reductions should be proportional to past emissions.  

(2) Time slice approaches: Equal shares

Problem: unequal per capita emissions

 

Solution: equal shares

• forget the past
• each person has a right to the same emissions
• this allowance should be consistent with keeping temperature rise below 2 deg C. 
• the allowance might be 2 tons CO2 per person
• each country's fair share of emissions = 2.3 tons X country's population
• Each country's fair share of effort to reduce based on their "overage" or "underage"

Historical vs. equal share

• Time-slice and historical: US has to do a lot
• Time-slice: China has to do just as much as US
• Historical: China has to do less than US

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(3) Time-slice: roughly equal shares

• subsistence emissions -- methane from rice paddies, heating fuel in Greenland
• development emissions -- costs of rising from poverty
• luxury emissions -- costs of big car, freezing cold movie theaters, flying to Europe

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How to make the reductions occur

Assume "equal shares" for simplicity

Garret Hardin--"mutual coercion mutually agreed upon"

Cap and trade

1. Every nation issued is permits based on population
2. Must have permits to emit GHG
3. "Overage" countries will have to buy permits from "underage" countries
4. Overage countries will have motivation to mitigate (so they don't have to buy so many permits)
5. Underage countries will have motivation to stay low but have money to develop
6. Cap and trade is a reality within countries/regions: European Union Emissions Trading System ; also California, China, etc.

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Climate Tracker assessment of country NDCs under Paris Agreement

Climate tracker: what does fair share mean?

Responsibility: historical

Equality: equal shares

Capabilities

Cost-effectiveness

Using fair share to assess NDCs: country ratings

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MODULE 4: Climate Justice

 AGENDA

1. The Story of Plastic--The Texas Theater (Oak Cliff) -- producer present -- March 31 7 pm -- Sierra Club -- free tickets
2. Longtermism and career choice--80,000 hours
3. Next week:  Geoengineering report on Wed
4. Today: prevention justic

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PETER SINGER 

chapter from Practical Ethics (2011)

Imagine that we live in a village in which everyone puts their waste down a giant drain...." (p. 218)

Peter Singer--the village drain that's filling up
What is each villager's fair share of the remaining space?

Two approaches to a just distribution (concepts from Robert Nozick)

1. Historical principles--
• "An historical principle is one that says to understand whether a given distribution of goods is just or unjust, we must ask how the distribution came about; we must know its history." (Singer p. 220)
• Apply to the village drain problem
2. Time-slice principles--
• "In contrast, a time-slice principle just looks at the existing distribution, at this moment of time, and asks on that basis if it is just. (p. 220)
• Apply to the village drain problem

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Let's think about fair share in terms of....

The Paris Agreement (2015)

Paris Agreement (2015)

1. Sets goal of limiting temperature rise (in 2100) to 2 degrees C. (3.6 F), or preferably 1.5 (2.7 F).
2. Countries create NDCs (nationally determined contributions to mitigation) 
3. Countries communicate contributions to adaptation
4. They report back every 5 years and must make more ambitious plans
5. Ratified by 196 countries -- US left in 2017 (Trump), joined again in 2021 (Biden), left again in 2025

Mitigation options

1. Transition away from fossil fuels to renewables (wind, solar)
2. Create emissions standards for industries, cars, etc.
3. Pass carbon tax 
4. Pass meat tax :-)
5. Subsidize electric cars
6. Plant trees (carbon sinks)
7. Etc.

How much should each nation do? What is their fair share?

1. Historical approach
2. Time-slice approach

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Historical Principle--You broke it, you fix it/Polluter pays

Historical principle #1: Total past emissions

• Each country's NDC should be based on their total past emissions
• Our World in Data--total emissions 
• Canada and India should do the same amount, based on similar past emissions
• But ...
• Our World in Data--per capita emissions 
• Our World in Data -- GDP per capita
• Population figures 
• India: 1.4 billion people
• Canada: 38 million people (1/4) 
• Somehow we have to take into account individual past emissions

Historical principle #2: Per capita past emissions

• What did the average person emit?
• India's fair share is the same as Tuvalu's!

Historical principle #3:  Total past emissions, above "allowance" per person

• "the assumption here, which seems reasonable, is that each person is entitled to an equal share of the atmosphere, and we should be looking at the extent to which people in some nations have, in past centuries, used more than their share." (Singer p. 221)
• Our World in Data--total emissions 

Historical principle #4: Same as #3, but responsibility starts when people know about climate change (around 1990)

• Our World in Data--total emissions 

Historical principle #5. Consumption not production

• Principle of commensurate benefits and burdens (Wenz)
• Note: Singer doesn't discuss Wenz
• Consumption determines NDC--so ignore exports
• Our World in Data--consumption vs. production
  

Historical principle #6:: each country's share of the solution should be based on how much they emitted in the past, above their fair share, looking only back to 1990, and focusing on consumption, not production.

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Equal Shares

TIME SLICE PRINCIPLES/EQUALITY

• the important time-slice is the present
• ethical assumption: each person has a right to the same emissions (equality)
• question: what per capita GHG emissions will keep temp rise below 1.5C in 2100?  
• Answer: about 2.3 tons CO2 equivalent
• fair share of emissions for each country: population X 2.3 ton
• fair share of effort to mitigate: what it takes to reach that leavel